Deloitte forecasts AI, data centres & media shifts by 2026

Deloitte has published its latest Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions report, putting agent-based AI, data centre spending and new consumer media formats at the centre of its outlook for 2026.

The report links AI adoption with shifts in search behaviour, business software and hardware procurement. It also points to fresh pressure on semiconductor supply chains and rising interest in domestic control of computing infrastructure.

For New Zealand, Deloitte connects these trends with current investment in data modernisation and a faster pace of AI deployment across organisations.

"Technology, media and telecommunications now represent almost half of global market capitalisation, and we're seeing that momentum reflected here in New Zealand. TMT isn't just another sector - it is fast becoming a core engine of economic growth," said Damian Harvey, Partner, Deloitte New Zealand.

"The real opportunity lies in what comes next: doing the practical work to make AI genuinely useful at scale, and realising the productivity gains that New Zealand organisations are targeting," said Harvey.

Agentic AI

Deloitte's outlook gives agentic AI a prominent role. It describes the approach as a driver of the next phase of enterprise integration. It also sets out market projections that depend on how organisations manage risks and operational complexity.

The report estimates the global agentic AI market could reach $35 billion in 2030. It puts the market at $8.5 billion in 2026. Deloitte also states that stronger orchestration of agents could lift the 2030 projection by up to 30% to $45 billion.

The report also predicts broad corporate spending. It says as many as 75% of companies may invest in agentic AI in 2026. It links that investment with increased spending on autonomous AI agents across SaaS platforms.

Search shifts

Deloitte also expects AI to change how people use search products. It forecasts that daily usage of AI within search will be three times higher than the usage of any standalone AI tool in 2026.

The report says nearly one-third of adults in developed countries will see at least one AI search summary daily. It gives a figure of 29%. It compares that with 10% of adults using standalone AI apps daily.

It says AI-driven summaries will increasingly appear at the top of results. It also says the model moves search from a list of links towards an interpreted response.

"AI isn't just transforming business, it's redefining the rules of competition. We're entering a period where automation, intelligent agents, and smarter software are no longer on the horizon; they're at the core of digital transformation. From reshaping how people search for information to reinventing enterprise platforms and pricing models, AI is altering the foundations of how markets operate," said Girija Krishnamurthy.

Data centres

On infrastructure, Deloitte highlights inference as the main driver of computing demand. It defines inference as the running of AI models. It forecasts inference will account for two-thirds of AI compute in 2026.

The report also challenges expectations that inference workloads will largely move to edge devices. It says most inference will likely still take place in data centres. It puts the value of costly and power-intensive AI chips used in these facilities at more than $200 billion.

Deloitte also points to investment in chipmaking technologies. It expects new approaches, including high-bandwidth memory co-packaging tools, 3D stacking, plasma etching and GAA transistors. It forecasts at least $30 billion of spending on these and other critical technologies.

The report says supply chains remain exposed to geopolitical tension. It links that exposure to a reliance on a small number of specialised suppliers in concentrated regions. It also notes the implications for countries distant from semiconductor hubs.

Deloitte also forecasts global investment in sovereign AI compute. It says nearly $100 billion will be invested in 2026. It adds that companies outside the US and China are expected to double their domestic AI capacity by 2030, led by EU efforts focused on AI sovereignty.

Robots and drones

The report also sets out predictions for industrial robotics and drones. It estimates the installed base of global industrial robots will reach 5.5 million by 2026. It expects modest annual growth. It also says annual robot sales will pass one million units, but not until 2030.

Deloitte links the longer-term outlook to labour shortages and domestic manufacturing. It also points to advances in computing power and multimodal AI as a factor for expanded robot use. It forecasts annual industrial robot sales could exceed one million units and reach $20 billion in revenues by 2030.

On drones, Deloitte says most remain human-operated, while autonomous functions are advancing rapidly.

Telecom changes

Deloitte's telecom outlook centres on satellite services and changes in how operators package connectivity. It says low-Earth-orbit satellite services are poised for further growth in 2026. It forecasts roughly $15 billion in annual revenues and more than 15 million global subscribers.

It also predicts an expansion in the number of communications satellites in low Earth orbit. It says five major constellations could total as many as 18,000 satellites by the end of the year.

The report also covers direct-to-device satellite services. It says investment is expected to climb to $6 billion to $8 billion by 2026. It adds that more than 1,000 direct-to-device-capable satellites could be in orbit and provide basic connectivity such as SOS, text and voice.

Media formats

In media, Deloitte points to blurred boundaries between streaming, social video and user-generated content. It highlights micro-dramas, generative video and the shift from audio podcasts to video formats.

It says micro-dramas attract more than half a billion viewers annually. It forecasts in-app revenue of $3.8 billion in 2025. It expects that figure to more than double to $7.8 billion in 2026.

Deloitte also says generative video will increase output and realism. It also says this trend raises challenges around authenticity, audience trust and responsible usage. It points to moderation, watermarking and compliance with emerging labelling and age verification rules as areas of response.

On podcasting, Deloitte says video has become more common across leading shows. It forecasts annual global advertising revenues for podcasts and vodcasts of roughly $5 billion in 2026. It says this represents a nearly 20% year-on-year increase.

"Entertainment as we know it is experiencing a tectonic shift. Today, audiences binge broadcast series on streaming platforms, follow creators on social feeds, watch micro-dramas on their phones, and tune into podcasts that look like TV shows. Generative video is accelerating this evolution, blurring the lines between studios, creators, and platforms, while redefining what entertainment means," said Dr. Tim Bottke, Deloitte Global Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment sector leader.